BTC price on Oct 16, 2026 at 4am EDT?: $82,000 or above
Consensus 69% across 2 venues (Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 75%). The real-money venues are 11.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 16? (82,000) | 63.5% | 64.0¢ | 37.0¢ | Yes |
| Kalshi Bitcoin price on Oct 16, 2026? ($82,000 or above) | 74.5% | 75.0¢ | 26.0¢ | Yes |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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