Prediction market odds, compared
Each row is one question matched across Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt and Manifold. Consensus is the liquidity-weighted probability across the real-money venues; the gap is the highest minus the lowest real-money price, in percentage points.
Where the venues disagree most
EventConsensusGapVenues
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 15?: 86-87°FPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 31%Gap 87.9 ptsVenues 2
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Oct 15, 2026?: 88° to 89°Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 29%Gap 87.3 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: East Carolina over 37.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 32%Gap 61.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: UAB over 20.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 50%Gap 45.6 ptsVenues 2
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 15?: 84-85°FPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 84%Gap 34.4 ptsVenues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit on October 15?: ↑ 83,000Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 17%Gap 28.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: UAB over 21.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 51%Gap 24.0 ptsVenues 2
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Team Total: Georgia Southern over 19.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 68%Gap 18.5 ptsVenues 2
- Georgia Southern vs Old DominionPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 50%Gap 18.0 ptsVenues 2
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Benjamin NetanyahuPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 29%Gap 17.5 ptsVenues 4
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: East Carolina over 27.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 47%Gap 12.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: UAB over 19.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 61%Gap 11.5 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Team Total: East Carolina over 30.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 37%Gap 11.0 ptsVenues 2
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Naftali BennettPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 16%Gap 8.5 ptsVenues 4
- Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 22%Gap 8.0 ptsVenues 4
- Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio BolsonaroPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 78%Gap 8.0 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jon OssoffPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 14%Gap 5.5 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Andy BeshearPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 4%Gap 4.2 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee: Marco RubioPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 14%Gap 4.0 ptsVenues 3
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Team Total: Old Dominion over 21.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 49%Gap 3.5 ptsVenues 2
Most traded matched events
EventConsensusGapVenues
- Mintegi Del Olmo vs Masarova: Ane Mintegi Del OlmoPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 59%Gap 0.2 ptsVenues 2
- Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 22%Gap 8.0 ptsVenues 4
- Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio BolsonaroPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 78%Gap 8.0 ptsVenues 3
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Spread: Georgia Southern wins by over 3.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 47%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Which party will win the U.S. House?: Republican PartyKalshi vs PredictItConsensus 10%Gap 2.5 ptsVenues 2
- Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increasePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 28%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Polymarket vs ManifoldConsensus 1%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps decreasePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 15, 2026?: 91° or abovePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 1%Gap 0.8 ptsVenues 2
- Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le PenPolymarket vs ManifoldConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Kylian MbappéPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 4%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?: Democratic PartyKalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Which party will win the U.S. House?: Democratic PartyKalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Khvicha KvaratskheliaPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine YamalPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 31%Gap 1.8 ptsVenues 2
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?: Nithya RamanKalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?: Republican PartyKalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Benjamin NetanyahuPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 29%Gap 17.5 ptsVenues 4
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Donald J. TrumpPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?: Karen BassKalshi vs PredictItConsensus 46%Gap 1.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Spread: East Carolina wins by over 5.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 49%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Total Points: Over 47.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 56%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: John N. KennedyPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lionel MessiPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October?: ↑ 87,500Polymarket vs ManifoldConsensus 42%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Pete ButtigiegPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 5%Gap 2.6 ptsVenues 3
- Valencia vs. Maccabi Tel AvivPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 100%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry KanePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 63%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)Polymarket vs ManifoldConsensus 63%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: RodriPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Georgia Southern vs Old DominionPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 50%Gap 18.0 ptsVenues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October?: ↑ 90,000Polymarket vs ManifoldConsensus 25%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jon OssoffPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 14%Gap 5.5 ptsVenues 3
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Itamar Ben GvirPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Jamie DimonPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UABPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: J.B. PritzkerPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Zohran MamdaniPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: James TalaricoPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 2%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Byron DonaldsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 15?: 84-85°FPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 84%Gap 34.4 ptsVenues 2
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic PartyPolymarket vs PredictItConsensus 64%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Total Points: Over 45.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 49%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Spread: East Carolina wins by over 4.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 52%Gap 1.0 ptsVenues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit on October 15?: ↑ 83,000Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 17%Gap 28.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Gavin NewsomPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Michael OlisePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Spread: Georgia Southern wins by over 2.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 55%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October?: ↑ 100,000Polymarket vs ManifoldConsensus 2%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Erling HaalandPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Republican PartyPolymarket vs PredictItConsensus 40%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 15, 2026?: 82° or belowPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 100%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Ousmane DembéléPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Hunter BidenPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Barack ObamaPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Next French Presidential Election: Jordan BardellaPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 1%Gap 0.9 ptsVenues 3
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Jon OssoffPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 10%Gap 1.7 ptsVenues 3
- East Carolina vs UAB: Spread: East Carolina wins by over 6.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 45%Gap 1.0 ptsVenues 2
- Brentford vs LiverpoolKalshi vs ManifoldConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Mark KellyPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael WarnockPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- New Hampshire Senate winner?: John E. SununuKalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Next French Presidential Election: Sébastien LecornuPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 0%Gap 0.8 ptsVenues 3
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD VancePolymarket vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 21%Gap 2.6 ptsVenues 3
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Naftali BennettPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 16%Gap 8.5 ptsVenues 4
- Next French Presidential Election: Gabriel AttalPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 2%Gap 2.9 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Wes MoorePolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Candace OwensPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R HousePolymarket vs PredictItConsensus 1%Gap 0.1 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Roy CooperPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Avigdor LiebermanPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 3%Gap 2.9 ptsVenues 3
- What price will Bitcoin hit on October 15?: ↑ 84,000Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 3%Gap 2.4 ptsVenues 2
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Kamala HarrisPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Worlds 2026 Champion: T1Polymarket vs Kalshi vs ManifoldConsensus 16%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 3
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Oct 15, 2026?: 88° to 89°Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 29%Gap 87.3 ptsVenues 2
- Next French Presidential Election: Édouard PhilippePolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Gavin NewsomPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt vs ManifoldConsensus 14%Gap 1.9 ptsVenues 4
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ted CruzPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 2%Gap 0.1 ptsVenues 3
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 15?: 86-87°FPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 31%Gap 87.9 ptsVenues 2
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Ro KhannaPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Thomas MassiePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 1%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc MélenchonPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Rahm EmanuelPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-CortezPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 17%Gap 1.1 ptsVenues 3
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: John ThunePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Thomas MassiePolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- What price will Bitcoin hit on October 15?: ↑ 85,000Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 1%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Spread: East Carolina wins by over 20.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 17%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jasmine CrockettPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 0%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Cory BookerPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 1%Gap 0.9 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee: Tulsi GabbardPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 1%Gap 0.5 ptsVenues 3
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: JB PritzkerPolymarket vs PredictItConsensus 1%Gap 1.5 ptsVenues 2
- East Carolina vs UAB: Spread: East Carolina wins by over 7.5 pointsPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus 40%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 15, 2026?: 80° to 81°Polymarket vs KalshiConsensus 100%Gap 0.0 ptsVenues 2
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Josh ShapiroPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 6%Gap 0.7 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee: Donald J. TrumpPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 2%Gap 1.5 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Michelle ObamaPolymarket vs KalshiConsensus —Gap —Venues 2
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Andy BeshearPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 2%Gap 2.1 ptsVenues 3
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee: Marco RubioPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus 14%Gap 4.0 ptsVenues 3
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Pete ButtigiegPolymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictItConsensus —Gap —Venues 3
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