Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen
Consensus 47% across 4 venues (Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 47%, PredictIt 56%, Manifold 46%). The real-money venues are 9.8 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? (Marine Le Pen) | 46.3% | 46.5¢ | 54.0¢ | Yes |
| Kalshi Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? (Marine Le Pen) | 46.5% | 47.0¢ | 54.0¢ | Yes |
| PredictIt Who will win the next French presidential election? (Marine Le Pen) | 56.0% | 58.0¢ | 46.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election? | 46.0% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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