2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party): Democratic party
Consensus 59% across 3 venues (Kalshi 59%, PredictIt 60%, Manifold 59%). The real-money venues are 1.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028? (Democratic party) | 58.5% | 59.0¢ | 42.0¢ | Yes |
| PredictIt Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? (Democratic) | 59.5% | 60.0¢ | 41.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election? | 58.7% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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