Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Consensus 14% across 2 venues (Kalshi 14%, Manifold 17%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030? (Before 2030) | 14.0% | 15.0¢ | 87.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will Starship reach Mars by 2030? | 16.7% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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