Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?: Before Nov 3, 2026
Consensus 2% across 2 venues (Kalshi 2%, Manifold 4%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026? (Before Nov 3, 2026) | 1.5% | 2.0¢ | 99.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms? | 4.5% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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