Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Consensus 17% across 2 venues (Polymarket 17%, Manifold 16%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16.5% | 17.0¢ | 84.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16.0% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
Resolution
Some venues have not settled yet.
- ManifoldWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Waiting for result
- PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Waiting for result
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