Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase
Consensus 15% across 2 venues (Polymarket 16%, Kalshi 14%). The real-money venues are 1.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (25 bps increase) | 15.5% | 16.0¢ | 85.0¢ | Yes |
| Kalshi Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? (Hike 25bps) | 14.5% | 15.0¢ | 86.0¢ | Yes |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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