Number of rate cuts in 2026?: Exactly 0 cuts
Consensus 97% across 2 venues (Polymarket 97%, Kalshi 96%). The real-money venues are 0.6 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? (0 (0 bps)) | 96.9% | 96.9¢ | 3.2¢ | Yes |
| Kalshi Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (Exactly 0 cuts) | 96.3% | 96.8¢ | 4.3¢ | Yes |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
Resolution
Some venues have not settled yet.
- KalshiWill the Fed cut rates 0 times?Still trading
- PolymarketWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Waiting for result
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