Will Trump declare a national emergency by year-end?
Consensus 21% across 2 venues (PredictIt 21%, Manifold 18%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Consensus
21.0%
Gap between venues
0.0 pts
Venues
2
Closes
Nov 2, 2026
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PredictIt Will Trump declare a national emergency by year-end? | 21.0% | 38.0¢ | 80.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms? | 18.0% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
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