Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Consensus 12% across 2 venues (Polymarket 12%, Manifold 12%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11.5% | 12.0¢ | 89.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket] | 12.0% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
Resolution
Some venues have not settled yet.
- ManifoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]Waiting for result
- PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Waiting for result
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