Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?: 1 or more
Consensus 6% across 2 venues (Kalshi 6%, Manifold 7%). The real-money venues are 0.0 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi 1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 (1 or more) | 6.0% | 7.0¢ | 95.0¢ | Yes |
| Manifold Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1? | 7.0% | — | — | No, signal only |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
Embed this
Put these live odds on your site or blog. The card updates every few minutes and follows the reader's light or dark theme.
<iframe src="https://huebr.net/embed/evt_d380c5a92162" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;max-width:480px" title="Live odds by huebr" loading="lazy"></iframe>Give your agent this data
These prices come from the huebr engine. Agents can read them over MCP with no key, and code can use the REST API (this page is /v1/events/evt_d380c5a92162). Arbitrage and mispricing signals are paid per call or with a Pro key.